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The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted key oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers hardly ever come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding brand-new reserves have the possible to throw federal governments' long-lasting preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the reality, rising long term international demands seem specific to outstrip production in the next decade, especially offered the high and increasing costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a circumstance, additives and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this technology to the leading edge, among the richest potential production locations has been absolutely overlooked by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom since of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have mainly hindered their ability to money in on increasing worldwide energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mainly reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased requirement to generate winter electrical power has resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn severely impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government authorities, given the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those sturdy financiers ready to bank on the future, particularly as a plant indigenous to the region has actually already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business already investigating how to produce it in commercial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian carrier to explore flying on fuel obtained from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's functional performance capability and possible industrial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another bonus offer of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially fine livestock feed candidate that is simply now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the household, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: historical proof suggests it has been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been figured out to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can produce problems in germination to attain an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential might allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's attempts at agrarian reform given that attaining self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; five years later on it had actually ended up being a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million loads each year, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting approximately 60 percent of the country's difficult currency income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production mainly bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient irrigation canals, resulting in the significant shrinkage of the rivers' final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, once the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its initial size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently explained camelina's organization model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign financial investment. U.S. investors have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow over time; less certain is who will profit of establishing it as a viable concern in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to pass it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American investors have the academic competence, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into establishing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that reduces water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the great deal of their agrarian population will get most cautious factor to consider from Central Asia's governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be developed faster.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.